Preaching the News for the Fourth Sunday of Advent, Cycle A

Taking stock of the market

Signs and wonders “as high as the sky” are spoken of in this Sunday’s reading from the prophet Isaiah. Major U.S. stock indexes are also in sky-high territory this week as the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 19,900 for the first time Tuesday. The 20,000 mark seems to be close at hand, although the Federal Bank’s interest rate hike Wednesday slowed things down a bit, at least for a moment. The bigger question is, what does all the stock market hoopla mean for the U.S. economy and ordinary Americans trying to get by?

The rise in interest rates is generally seen as a positive sign that the economy is healthy and may even need to be cooled off a bit to avoid overheating, which would lead to a high level of inflation. J.J. Kinahan, TD Ameritrade's chief strategist, said stocks have surged since the presidential election because, after the long campaign, investors now have a better idea which policies the country will adopt. “The biggest questions hanging over us are gone,” he said.

As the Dow nears 20,000, people who are not invested in stocks are asking if they have missed out on a record run and how much farther stocks will rise. Those already invested are wondering if they should sell while they are ahead. The simple answer that many experts give to these sorts of questions is that most investors, especially ordinary Americans who may have some money set aside for retirement, should do little to nothing in light of 20,000 or any market milestone. “Don’t try to time the market and don’t get caught up in the hype over a round number. Invest for the long term, be patient, and let the power of compounding returns do the work,” says Todd Morgan, chairman of Bel Air Investment Advisors LLC.

Some investors may want to take steps to protect themselves from today’s relatively high stock valuations. For example, recent research indicates that people within a few years of retiring should temporarily reduce their stock allocations to protect against potential losses in the years right after retirement, when retirees are most vulnerable to stock-market declines.

The Federal Reserve, as expected, nudged up short-term interest rates by a quarter of a percent, signaling its confidence that the economy is sufficiently robust to handle it. In its announcement, the Fed predicted a gross domestic product growth of 2.1 percent for the next year, and GDP growth at a similar pace in later years, plus it indicated it would lift rates three times next year. The prognosis bodes well for ordinary Americans hoping for continued slow but steady improvement in the job market and in earnings.

“We’re on a good path to reaching our objectives,” Fed Chair Janet Yellen said in a news conference, in which she was careful not to pick a fight with the incoming administration. In perhaps an oblique reference to President-elect Donald Trump’s complaint that the Fed should have elevated rates earlier, she noted that she thought the Fed “is not behind the curve.” In broad terms, she also defended the Dodd-Frank law imposing tighter federal controls on banks, saying it was “important” to ensure that lenders keep solid amounts of capital to cushion them in bad times. Trump has talked about scaling back Dodd-Frank. In its statement, the Fed said that the "labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace since mid-year.”

Lessons drawn from the readings

Though economics often dominates the news, it’s good to remember, as the psalmist puts it this Sunday, that the "Lord’s are the earth and its fullness.” The beauty and grandeur of the natural world, and the miracle of life itself, does not depend upon the stock market or any “economic indicator.” They are, rather, “divine indicators” that serve to remind us where are ultimate loyalty—and security—can be found.

Final thought in light of the news

Before we break into a stanza of “Happy days are here again,” let’s pause to remember all those who have been left behind by the slow economic recovery of the past few years. Things may be better for more of us, but not for all of us. And when the “least among us” do not have the basic necessities—food, clothing, shelter, healthcare—then all of us are a little poorer.


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