In this Sunday's gospel Jesus promises to his followers that he will "give them eternal life." In the meantime medical doctors do what they can to keep our earthly lives as healthy as possible. But with the ranks of the newly insured expanding as a result of the new healthcare law, experts warn that the U.S. will soon face a severe shortage of doctors.

At current graduation and training rates the nation could face a shortfall of as many as 150,000 doctors in the next 15 years, according to the Association of American Medical Colleges. That shortage is predicted despite a push by teaching hospitals and medical schools to boost the number of U.S. doctors, which now totals about 954,000.

The greatest demand will be for primary-care physicians. These general practitioners, internists, family physicians, and pediatricians will have a larger role under the new law, coordinating care for each patient. A shortage could lead to more limited access to health care and longer wait times for patients.

The U.S. has 352,908 primary-care doctors now and the college association estimates that 45,000 more will be needed by 2020. But the number of medical school students entering family medicine fell more than a quarter between 2002 and 2007, largely because of the lower pay primary-care doctors receive relative to specialists.

Proponents of the new healthcare law say it does attempt to address the physician shortage. The law offers sweeteners to encourage more people to enter medical professions and a 10-percent Medicare pay boost for primary-care doctors.

But medical colleges and hospitals warn that these efforts will hit a big bottleneck: A shortage of medical resident positions. The residency is the minimum three-year period when medical school graduates train in hospitals and clinics.

While doctors trained in other countries could theoretically help the primary-care shortage, they hit the same obstacle with resident slots because they must still complete a U.S. residency in order to get a license to practice medicine independently in the U.S.

"It will probably take 10 years to even make a dent into the number of doctors that we need out there," said Atul Grover, the AAMC's chief advocacy officer.

Source: An article by Susanne Sataline and Shirley S. Wang for the Wall Street Journal